A couple of days ago I linked to a post by Arthur Chrenkoff about doings in North Korea. Today, Roger L. Simon has some more.
It’s Thursday in Japan and I have received email from Kyoto from Mongai Kome, frequent commenter on this blog. His morning paper (Sankei Shinbun) is reporting anti-regime flyers being posted in over fifty places in North Korea. This public display of disobedience in that benighted country is unprecedented and has been going on for the last month.
Bogey and his lovely bride taught in South Korea for more than two years, and still have friends there. Perhaps they can get some info to us. I’m concerned the South may view this as the perfect opportunity for reunification–whether the North wants it or not.
Well, as I mentioned on the last post, I really doubt the South would dare try anything that dangerous. Their own military is probably much better equipped — and they’ve got US forces right there with them — but I think the north’s army still far outnumbers them. Any “aggressive” move at reunification would probably be met with a pretty fierce resistance, and then there’s the fact DPRNK has nukes, right? Seoul is just a stone’s throw from the DMZ, and its metropolitan area is home to around 25% of the entire population of the South… I don’t think they’d dare risk getting Seoul raided or worse. Mrs. Bogey will be asking her Korean students a lot of questions this week to see if there are any pervasive rumors over there — they usually trickle back to the Korean-American population pretty quickly.
And in spite of the oft-stated public desire for reunification, a LOT of South Koreans we knew seemed to believe very strongly it had better happen very, very slowly. They’re extremely concerned about the economic and social strain that a hasty reunification would have.
We really need to hear from from Birdie, too; he’s probably got a much more clear idea of the South’s military capabilities and motivation, having served there.
Comment by Bogey — November 18, 2004 @ 7:38 am
Unfortunately, Birdie is in the woods this week. Maybe Sunday he’ll jump in.
Comment by Bunker — November 18, 2004 @ 9:36 am
I’ve talked to all my Korean students living here. Not one of them has heard anything about it. But I did hear a report from the BBC today. One theory is that Kim JongIl is requesting the removal of many of his public pictures in an attempt to lower his diety-like status and redirect blame for the problems in his country. But, again, these have all been second-hand rumors. I’ll be emailing Korean friends in the R.O.K. soon.
The spokesperson for South Korea’s reuinfication department said that they’re not jumping to any conclusions. And I’d have to agree that the sentiment of South Koreans is VERY cautious about a reunification even in the best of circumstances. Plus, President No hasn’t hinged his political career on that goal as much as the previous president, Kim DaeJung had. So, I don’t think we have to worry about them rushing in.
Comment by Sunsangnim — November 18, 2004 @ 11:08 pm
Roger Simon is getting some information, and may have a very good line on all this. Things don’t sound like they’re in the “normal” stage in NK right now.
Comment by Bunker — November 19, 2004 @ 5:48 am
Oh, most certainly not normal, but there are still many possibilities as to what’s going on.
Comment by Bogey — November 19, 2004 @ 7:45 am
The south’s military capibilities are to say the least, adequete. Then and the US forces there are really just a road block to stop the invasion from going too far until the remaner of UN forces arrive.
Comment by Birdie — November 19, 2004 @ 12:29 pm