Dubya has made it clear he isn’t interested in pursuing his legacy. He knows that the history of his Administration won’t be written until long after he is gone. What is written today and in the next four years will be little more than opinion with facts thrown in as necessary. Real history requires separation in time from the events in order to better assess them.
I’ve done a fair amount of historical research, and understand a bit about how things look from afar. Using archival information and piecing thoughts together regarding personalities to weave a coherent text can be daunting. And in writing real history, biases can intrude and either be reinforced or discounted. A good historian will have the integrity to overcome bias, even though the topic may be a pet project. I doubt my text here meets those standards. But I wanted to really show how what looks really important today actually fades once the future plays out.
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Earlier in this century, George W. Bush’s Presidency was on the road to being a weak reiteration of the Reagan years. He had taken some steps toward reapplying Reaganomics, but had succumbed to the desire to work with the opposition in creating more socialistic programs. Under his watch, the Federal government increased Medicare spending to provide prescription drug benefits to the elderly, and Bush pushed the Congress to increase education spending. In the latter, he teamed with Senator Edward Kennedy of Massachusetts in an attempt to heal some of the wounds remaining from the contentious 2000 election.
On September 11, 2001, Bush’s focus changed dramatically with the attack by nineteen Islamic terrorists which destroyed New York City’s twin World Trade Center towers and the southern face of the Pentagon in Washington, D.C.
After first eliminating the Taliban government in Afghanistan, American forces deposed Saddam Hussein in Iraq. Within four years, both countries held free elections for the first time in history, and American forces withdrew. This was followed soon after by the withdrawl of Syrian forces from Lebanon, a country which had been occupied for more than 30 years. Internal strife in Syria led to a repudiation of the Assad Baathist government and open elections in 2007.
While turmoil reigned in Syria, the Iranian government saw an opportunity to attack Israel and launched two missiles toward Tel Aviv and a third at Jerusalem. All three were intercepted by Patriot batteries and their pieces fell into Jordanian territory. The relatively crude nuclear warheads failed to detonate, but the political reverberations gave Israel cover for an attack on Iranian nuclear facilities. Dissidents in Iran managed to overthrow the government, and requested assistance from the UN in setting up elections. In the last official act of that organization, the UN declined. A coalition of delegates from the US and twelve other nations established offices in Teheran and free elections took place in 2008, concurrent with the election in the US.
President Hillary Clinton moved into the White House in 2009, and the Islamicists made their last-ditch effort to change the dynamics of the overall war by setting off a small nuclear explosion under the Golden Gate Bridge. The low-yield weapon took down the south tower, but the city was spared extensive damage due to the surface explosion rather than an air-burst. President Clinton suffered a nervous breakdown from which she never recovered, and her husband, former President Bill Clinton, informally served out the remainder of her term, much to the chagrin of Vice President John Edwards. With no strong commitment to continuing the fight, Edwards was defeated handily in 2012.
President Condoleezza Rice took the oath of office in 2013, and immediately called for a new international organization made up of representative governments from around the world. Membership was restricted to nations which had held free and open elections for at least 50 years, and associate membership for those which allowed for member nations to monitor elections for at least four cycles. Countries like Saudi Arabia, excluded from membership, began the slow movement toward open elections and representative government, and by the end of Rice’s second term the Organization of Republics boasted 87 member nations with 23 more in application.
The changes in the world dynamic were a direct result of America’s decision to end Islamofascism. Beirut is once again a thriving international city. Iraq has become the economic center of the Middle East with oil and food exports supporting the entire region. Jordan’s agreement with Israel to build a pipeline and desalination plant promises to turn the desert area east of Amman into a green zone. Egypt and Saudi Arabia are now having to make some tough decisions, and are moving more toward the model in Turkey. Iran has redirected its nuclear efforts toward energy generation, and now exports more oil than any country in the region while still providing adequate electricity for its own consumption and sale across borders to both Iraq and Afghanistan. Syria still struggles with no oil and little farm land, but is considering water importation through a pipeline to mimic Jordanian efforts.
The last thirty years have seen tremendous changes in the Middle East, and they can all be traced back to the decision by a much-maligned Bush Administration’s decision to take the battle to the enemy.