The concensus of Democrats and MSM is that Iraq is a quagmire, and continues to go badly. I understand their desire for that to be true. Obvious.
Yet Wretchard has been tracking, with statistics and everything, where and when the most recent attacks have taken place. He has done a lot of work putting it all together and drawing what I feel are strong conclusions.
I have to go back to something I wrote earlier, though. People tend to compartmentalize information, and censor in their minds any link between seemingly disparate facts. Intelligence analysts look for those tenuous links rather than discarding them. And the greatest indicator in my mind as to the success or failure in Iraq is peripheral information.
Bashir al-Assad is the President of Syria, a Baathist and President in the same sense as Saddam was President of Iraq. He has an intelligence network throughout the Middle East, and has strong ties to Baathists still in Iraq. I would say his intelligence on the true situation in Iraq is better than any other. And what does his intelligence tell him about the situation? I can only make an educated guess. But I think his recent actions say a lot.
He has decided to pull troops back from Lebanon, which Syria has occupied for thirty years (the real occupied territory). He has agreed to post troops along the border with Iraq to help prevent jihadists from crossing over. And he is attempting to find a new home for some Iraqis who fled to Syria during the last two years.
My analysis is that he sees the situation in Iraq as becoming stable enough for the US to consider actions against other supporters of terrorism. And he views himself as target #1. That’s one list where he would like to see his status decline.
So, who do you believe–the New York Times or Assad’s intelligence service?