Bunker Mulligan "Let us endeavor so to live that when we come to die even the undertaker will be sorry." ~Mark Twain

March 7, 2005

Oil or Democracy

Filed under: International — Bunker @ 7:36 am

Neal Boortz echoes some things we’ve heard elsewhere:

All of a sudden it would seem the Arab dictators in the Middle East are singing a different tune these days. Could it be because they have seen the United States liberate two enslaved peoples in Iraq and Afghanistan, bringing about free elections? Just as was the case with the fall of the Berlin wall and the collapse of the Soviet Union, once people have a taste of freedom, it can’t be stopped. It’s contagious.

Not so fast. Although the Arabs as a group are pretty inept in military terms, and are failing to deal with their own internal issues, they still have clout in the world’s marketplace. OPEC talks about oil reaching $80 per barrel within two years.

Can they do it? It depends on a lot of things, not the least of which is their willingness to forego some of their luxuries to balance the economic impact on people in their own countries. At first blush, many would view the price increase as a windfall to oil producers. Historically, that hasn’t been the result. OPEC often loses unanimity with big increases as one or more members strike sweet deals and sell more than their quota. Selling less, even at higher prices, can play havoc with an economy based on a single commodity.

Can the oil-rich nations of the Middle East balance the issues? With cries for democracy growing, and increases in oil prices possibly creating more economic problems within those same nations, the future could be democracy or anarchy. The desire to employ their only weapon against the West and the dynamism of western political ideas could lead to their own destruction.

Wallace, get that well of yours producing!

3 Comments

  1. get that well of yours producing

    Thanks…jury is still out on that one. Swabbing to get all the fluids [water, spent acid] out of the hole so the formation can produce…hopefully!

    About $80 oil: Of course that would be a windfall for us producers, but I think you’ll find a general consensus among US producers agreeing that high prices like that are not good for the economy as a whole. What we have wanted to see instead of abnormally high prices, is consistancy of pricing so that we can be fairly confident that if we drill a million dollar well this year, we can get our investment back in a reasonable time.

    Comment by Wallace-Midland Texas — March 7, 2005 @ 10:38 am

  2. You’ve certainly reinforced my point about economies and oil. Now if we only had the refining capacity to handle all the oil we could produce here in the US.

    Comment by Bunker — March 7, 2005 @ 10:47 am

  3. Also, there are a horde of alternative oil sources (like tar sands and cracking coal) that simply aren’t economical at current prices, but become economical at prices much lower than that. OPEC could drive the prices up and then foster exactly the sort of technology innovation that kills them.

    Comment by Phelps — March 8, 2005 @ 10:54 pm

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